What to Expect this Holiday Season

Now that the elections are passed us, many retailers are getting into full swing for the holiday season.  With many retailers who have released Black Friday ads already, consumers are getting energized with the holiday spirit.  While some have wondered what to expect this holiday season, many expectations are optimistic.  Having the 4^th quarter start off so strong, it is expected whether you are a manufacturer, retailer, or consumer, you can expect continued growth through the beginning of 2013.

 

As fuel prices have been falling, and consumer confidence continues to rise, positive growth prevails.  While we can hope that the trend continues, only time will tell.  Now that the elections are over, stock market volatility should be reduced and become more docile.  If we can keep the Dow Jones up, Economy Strong, and keep Consumer Spending up, we should be moving in the right direction for the beginning of 2013.

 

In addition, we also can expect to see lower unemployment numbers in the coming months as companies hire seasonal workers.  With more people working earning a wage, people have more excess capital to spend, which also will help the continued growth of this great nation that we all reside.

 

Whether you are a democrat or republican, there is now no time for bickering as we must move forward.  It is with God that we put our trust that the next 4 years will continue to improve and the economy will rejuvenate with sustainable growth.  It is only with growth that we can reduce poverty, build jobs, and generate products for the greater good. 

 

While the holiday season is a major part of people’s lives, it also is a major time for businesses to generate enough profit to help them wade through the slow times of the year.  In an effort to help this nation, I would urge everyone to look at the labels and support American Made Products whenever possible.  Although it seems all products are produced abroad, you may be surprised to find that products such as Carhartt Clothing, Kershaw Knives, Ocean Tamer - Marine Bean Bags, and many many more products are produced here in the United States.  To find additional resources for American Made Products this Holiday Season, I found a huge list at www.AmericansWorking.com.  No matter if you are an individual shopping this season for personal gifts or management personnel looking for retail displays, take a few extra minutes to research American Made Alternatives that may be comparable in price and keep jobs in America.

 

It is only with the help of everyone that we insure the Holiday Season is Successful and that we keep the positive economic growth in America.  As Americans we must be United as One or Divided We Will Fall. God Bless You All this Holiday Season and Let’s Finish the 4^th Quarter of 2012 Strong with a Successful Holiday Season.

Go Vote Today!

Today is the Day, for YOU to Make a Difference. November 6th, 2012 is HERE. Execute Your Right to Vote, and get to the polls.  Every Vote Counts!  He/ She who doesn't vote, can't complain about the outcome of the election or the changes from Amendments whether they be positive or negative.

Lessons Learned & The Positives Derived by Hurricane Sandy

While Hurricane Sandy has caused severe havoc on the Northeastern United States and resulted in the loss of lives, she also will produce many positives as well.  With every negative situation, I try to find the positives in order to move forward.  Even though some initial reports have estimated more than 50 billion dollars in damage, it will result in rebuilding and provide many types of jobs as well.

For the loss of lives, we send our deepest condolences and prayers to all of those families.  With God Speed we hope you find the peace needed in order to move forward.

While Caribbean Nations, Floridians, and the Southern United States are well accustomed to hurricanes and the potential hazards they inflict, many northern states appear ill prepared for such natural disaster.  Although there were many variables that caused this storm to be catastrophic, when provided with all of the materials from early detection technology, the loss of lives should be prevented.  Even though Hurricane Sandy was only a Category 1 storm, with all of the other known details provided by the National Weather Service, she was no beast to recon with.  Taken from this storm, can be the lessons learned by listening to the warnings.  I also would claim that an increase in building codes is likely needed in order to be able to sustain such storm.  Since it is known that the most damaging aspect of a storm is the storm surge, the structures along the coast should be elevated, and built to withstand the sustained winds.

Having been called the “Frankenstorm”, for its arrival so close to Halloween and extremely late in the hurricane season, it has caused a huge nightmare for millions of people near and afar, but will have positive outcomes.  In order to generate power a combination of negative and positives are needed.  Although it is not always easy to extract the positive in a negative situation, they do exist.  Having a positive outlook on the situation will lead to a generation of growth.  With the storm having caused such devastation, all industries will be affected by the storm and its aftermath.  Plumbers, electricians, home builders, truck drivers, furniture stores, department stores, etc, etc, etc all will see an increase in business and provide jobs that may have otherwise been not available.  As those areas affected by the storm are cleaned up and rebuilt, many jobs will be needed and will put people back to work.

As I have experienced the tragedies and worked with the victims caused by hurricanes and natural disasters numerous times, I know first hand what those affected are experiencing.  Often times after the storm people will realize the storm brought neighbors closer together, bridged the gap with seniors and youth, and opened the heart of those around them to lend a helping hand to each other.  With the inability to rely solely on government entities, FEMA, and assistance organizations, I have found that natural disaster like this do bring many positives along with the negatives, so I would urge those affected and nearby to lend a helping hand to each other, keep a positive outlook on the situation, and remain strong through this tough time.  Better things are yet to come, and many lessons will be taken from Hurricane Sandy.  God Bless.        

Presidential Selection with an Eye on Manufacturers

As November 6^th fast approaches, manufacturers across the country are patiently waiting to see the outcome of the election.  While many of us have our own views, opinions, and political preference, for many manufacturers the outcome is crucial for what the next four years will entail.  Although both candidates have made references to manufacturing during the debates, and their plans for an economic recovery strategy, I found my selection after hearing both parties to be simple.

While many Americans vote strictly by political affiliation, I urge everyone to evaluate both Romney and Obama, and take a scope outside the media jargon to ensure the best political candidate takes office.  Even though neither of the candidates are “perfect”, I would push voters who are undecided to educate themselves completely on ALL of the major issues, as well as taking an in depth look at both candidates over the past four years.

With a number of important issues to keep in mind, you can find many resources online along with fact checkers to insure the information you are reading is factual.  Unfortunately, since anyone can make claims and write them “as a matter of fact,” most are not true and should be verified before rendering a conclusion who you should vote for come November 6^th.

Since the President of the United States is a global icon, it is very important that we pick the candidate that most resembles our nation as a whole and who has the ability to guide our nation effectively.  With our national debt exceeding 17 trillion dollars and rising, I also would urge voters to elect the candidate you believe has the best plan to reduce the national debt.  In addition to the nation’s debt, lowering unemployment, and rejuvenating the United States economy should be major areas you take a look at.

Choosing the Best Presidential Candidate Takes Time and should not be selected using “ennie meanie minnie mo” on Election Day.  Selecting the President is a very important civic duty we each have for the future of the United States and the image we wish to administer across the world.  So I ask each of you on November 6^th, to Please Vote Responsibly with an Educated Vote for the candidates.  Manufacturers across the United States are patiently waiting for the answer to unfold, in order to better plan for what the next 4 years could entail.         

Is the Presidential Election Driving an Increase in Manufacturing?

Is the Presidential Election driving an increase in Manufacturing?  With less than a month remaining on the campaign trail, manufacturing across various industries are showing significant increases from this time last year.  Over the past 2 months manufacturing has continued to strengthen, and has many businesses booked into the middle of next year.  With manufacturing having been so slow for so long and then the rapid spike of production, many manufacturing facilities are playing catch up hiring additional employees in order to fill orders being placed.  In addition to hiring additional employees, getting them trained, filling orders, and taking additional product orders many have asked what caused this sudden increase in production? 

Although there is still turbulence abroad, with the 4^th quarter of 2012 well under way, one could speculate that an increase in consumer confidence is driving the increase, or that the presidential election is playing a role in driving the increase for manufacturing.  Since fuel prices still remain high, yet consumers continue to spend disposable income freely, it is difficult to determine what has actually occurred in order to cause this spike. 

Since oil prices are still high we can rule that out, and since people’s wages have remained relatively constant or slightly down, we can rule out that everyone has more money.  Is the spike caused by the slow trickle of the federal stimulus? ...I doubt it.  While I can’t pinpoint the exact cause for the increase in manufacturing, I can only presume that with the national election near, that it is causing this manufacturing boom.  Staying away from the party line debates, I am thankful for the manufacturing increase no matter what the cause.  Since manufacturing is a staple of our economy, it is great to have the increase, but hope it isn’t temporary.

Manufacturing facilities nationwide have been experiencing this boom and say, it will help close the year out and start off 2013 in the right direction.  No matter what the cause, lets all remember to help support U.S. business by buying Made in the U.S.A. goods whenever possible.  We also must push for bringing more manufacturing jobs back from overseas.  We have a very competent workforce within the United States that are capable of producing high quality goods at an affordable price, but we must have the facilities over here in order for that to happen.  Let’s join together and continue this push of supporting our fellow American, and insure this increase in manufacturing that we are currently experiencing is not short lived.

Market Showing Strength

In an effort to determine market trends, I monitor 30 stocks on a monthly basis, and was shocked to see September’s numbers so high.  With the current strength being the strongest since February when 27 out of 30 showed an increase in value, I am baffled to see this month that 28 out of 30 stocks monitored showed an increase in value with the volatility of world affairs, and sweet crude around $95/barrel.  Since last month when 15 out of 30 showed positive increases and sweet crude was around $93/barrel, this is an obvious shift of market strength. 

Whether it be an increase in consumer confidence or inflated numbers from family vacations and back to school, seeing such an incline in market strength is a positive for our economy.  While not all the questions can be answered by these results, one must hope for this trend to continue.

Included in the list of stocks I follow, there is a wide array of industries including retail, construction, health care, consumer goods, food & beverage, along with others to establish a viable basis to determine market strength and trends.  Although the list only includes 30 companies, I believe it provides a sound base in order to provide enough evidence to make an educated determination of market strength and industry trends in a timely fashion.

Although there is a number of variables that control a stocks increase or decrease in value, I monitor sweet crude oil to determine the effects fuel prices have on a particular industry.  While we are all aware, when fuel prices increase in value, we usually notice a reduction in consumer confidence, and then see a reduction in stock value based on less spending of non needed items.  In addition, the longer the trend exists the harder the consumer confidence is to rejuvenate or restore to a respectable level.  Since peoples incomes do not fluctuate up and down as fuel prices increase and decrease, we are forced to alter our budgets and spend money more wisely.

Whatever the case may be for September’s trends, although it is still too early to tell what the following months will bring, I hope the trend continues.  While we can stand to see fuel prices fall to a more moderate level, with a continuation of positive market strength across all industries, we will ensure a strong and healthy economy.                       

Fuel Prices Adversely Effect Manufacturing

Although fuel prices have recently crept back to record highs, we anticipate the fallout to cause unfavorable effects soon.  Since we know fuel prices adversely affect manufacturing, it is only a matter of time until consumer confidence falls and spending of discretionary income comes to a halt.  While many retailers have recently relinquished funds for capital improvements, when consumers quit spending, they too quit spending until consumer confidence is restored.  With 2012 being an election year and many other variables, we can only hope that fuel prices fall before consumers pull back on spending.  Although manufacturing has been very favorable over the past few months and projections are solid for the next couple of months with plenty of contractual obligations, it is the scope beyond that is unknown.

We have spoken about consumer confidence before, but it is imperative for manufacturers to monitor.  Since we are directly affected by the amount of business that retailers receive, we must monitor consumer confidence in order to be cognizant of the potential shortfalls in work, and excess labor.  Unfortunately, when consumers quit spending it is a vicious cycle, and causes many negative affects to occur.

While the workload for the next couple of months is favorable, with many retailers having released funds to complete capital improvements, it is the first quarter scope that could prove troublesome if work is not acquired and consumer confidence is not restored.

Having spoken with several manufacturers throughout various industries, they too are “feeling the heat” caused by the increase in fuel prices.  Although we all know fuel is crucial in our lives, economic leverage is often barred on its price being low and affordable for most. 

Since the government has required oil companies to produce a cleaner fuel which now includes ethanol which is derived from corn, and bean crops, our food prices have increased as well.  Although alternative energy is important, I would point to the ineffectiveness of ethanol as a viable source.  While the concept of cleaner energy is wonderful, when incomes and inflation can’t keep up with the increases, it causes negative affects on the economy.  Fuel is vital in all of our lives weather we like it or not, but should not dictate our economy.  With plenty of oil and alternative energy sources like hydrogen (most abundant element on earth), we have the potential to be sustainable for numerous years, and generate a strong economy with a consumer confidence that is unparalleled.  You probably are asking yourself “If ethanol isn’t the best alternative fuel source, why did oil companies go this direction?”, the answer is, it was the best short term solution to a long term problem.  In order to meet the regulations that the government had implanted, they had to act fast in order to satisfy the guidelines.  Although hydrogen is the most abundant element on earth and “pollution-less”, it is very hard to extract, which would cause it to be expensive, but with some government help could likely be achieved more easily.  I also would say that when the extraction takes place on economies of scale that the price would become more affordable, and is by far a better alternative fuel source than ethanol.

By using a viable alternative energy source that is sustainable, we as a nation would be less dependent on oil and our economy would be rejuvenated with jobs and expendable income that could be used within retail establishments, restaurants, entertainment, etc, or to start a new company.  Since consumer confidence is based off of expendable income, I believe we should look ahead at the real problem and fix the problem at hand which is FUEL PRICES.  If we can get closer to a controlled fuel price meaning alternative fuel source, we can create a STRONG Economy and Manufacturing Will Be Sustainable.  Until then, we are tied to the hips of oil companies and must hope that fuel prices fall, consumers keep spending, retail establishments continue to flourish, and that a viable fuel source is created to lessen our dependence on oil companies.