Although fuel prices have recently crept back to record
highs, we anticipate the fallout to cause unfavorable effects soon. Since we know fuel prices adversely affect
manufacturing, it is only a matter of time until consumer confidence falls and
spending of discretionary income comes to a halt. While many retailers have recently
relinquished funds for capital improvements, when consumers quit spending, they
too quit spending until consumer confidence is restored. With 2012 being an election year and many
other variables, we can only hope that fuel prices fall before consumers pull
back on spending. Although manufacturing
has been very favorable over the past few months and projections are solid for
the next couple of months with plenty of contractual obligations, it is the
scope beyond that is unknown.
We have spoken about consumer confidence before, but it is
imperative for manufacturers to monitor.
Since we are directly affected by the amount of business that retailers
receive, we must monitor consumer confidence in order to be cognizant of the
potential shortfalls in work, and excess labor.
Unfortunately, when consumers quit spending it is a vicious cycle, and
causes many negative affects to occur.
While the workload for the next couple of months is
favorable, with many retailers having released funds to complete capital
improvements, it is the first quarter scope that could prove troublesome if
work is not acquired and consumer confidence is not restored.
Having spoken with several manufacturers throughout various
industries, they too are “feeling the heat” caused by the increase in fuel
prices. Although we all know fuel is
crucial in our lives, economic leverage is often barred on its price being low and
affordable for most.
Since the government has required oil companies to produce a
cleaner fuel which now includes ethanol which is derived from corn, and bean
crops, our food prices have increased as well.
Although alternative energy is important, I would point to the
ineffectiveness of ethanol as a viable source.
While the concept of cleaner energy is wonderful, when incomes and
inflation can’t keep up with the increases, it causes negative affects on the
economy. Fuel is vital in all of our
lives weather we like it or not, but should not dictate our economy. With plenty of oil and alternative energy
sources like hydrogen (most abundant element on earth), we have the potential
to be sustainable for numerous years, and generate a strong economy with a
consumer confidence that is unparalleled.
You probably are asking yourself “If ethanol isn’t the best alternative
fuel source, why did oil companies go this direction?”, the answer is, it was
the best short term solution to a long term problem. In order to meet the regulations that the
government had implanted, they had to act fast in order to satisfy the
guidelines. Although hydrogen is the
most abundant element on earth and “pollution-less”, it is very hard to
extract, which would cause it to be expensive, but with some government help
could likely be achieved more easily. I
also would say that when the extraction takes place on economies of scale that
the price would become more affordable, and is by far a better alternative fuel
source than ethanol.
By using a viable alternative energy source that is
sustainable, we as a nation would be less dependent on oil and our economy
would be rejuvenated with jobs and expendable income that could be used within
retail establishments, restaurants, entertainment, etc, or to start a new
company. Since consumer confidence is
based off of expendable income, I believe we should look ahead at the real
problem and fix the problem at hand which is FUEL
PRICES. If we can get closer to a
controlled fuel price meaning alternative fuel source, we can create a STRONG
Economy and Manufacturing Will Be Sustainable.
Until then, we are tied to the hips of oil companies and must hope that
fuel prices fall, consumers keep spending, retail establishments continue to
flourish, and that a viable fuel source is created to lessen our dependence on
oil companies.
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