What is Causing the Increase in Poor Stock Performance?

As we march ahead into the Holiday Season, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday now past, I sit back and ponder some thought.  Although Black Friday Sales are said to be down for most retailers, while showing an overall increase in sales for the entire weekend of about 9%, and some reports of 30% increases for Cyber Monday from retailers across the United States, What is causing poor stock performance?

Every month I track 29 stocks which consist of a wide variety of retailers and various product categories.  In addition, I also track Sweet Crude Oil to see if stocks are being directly affected by oil prices.  This week as I tracked the stocks, I was pleasantly surprised to see that of the 29 stocks, 24 had a decrease in stock value from last month.

Although I would have speculated with the perception that an increase in sales would add some reassurance for potential shareholders, I am surprised to see the opposite response in stock values.  As I looked at the value of oil per barrel, it has fallen $7 a barrel since October which should increase consumer confidence and loosen the grip of some hard earned dollars for goods and services.  In addition, as I look at oil prices, they are actually the lowest they have been since June.  While there still is some global turmoil, with little chance of needing American military intervention, that should have little affect on the immediate stock values as well.

As I narrow down what could be causing many of these stocks to deflate in value from last month, I have also concluded that upper executive management decisions or marketing changes are not the cause.

Since people are spending, unemployment is falling, and home sales are on a rise, the only other reason I can conclude for the stocks falling is due to future projections beginning in 2013.  Although it appears sales are going to power through the end of the year finishing retail numbers out stronger than 2011, with some uncertainty of the near future, stocks are not mirroring sales.  With a slew of new taxes to be imposed in January, with both personal and corporate pocketbooks to be affected, one can only conclude that this is the cause for the immediate stock value decreases.  In prior months, it is likely that people purchased stocks which drove the increase in stock value due to Presidential Election Projections, which likely is not the outcome they had wished for.

Despite the outcome of the election, I feel confident this is likely the cause for investor uncertainty and for the stock value decreases.  Since there is much instability for what impact these imposed taxes could have on the economy, I believe people are holding steady until things are presented more clearly.

So what is causing the increase in poor stock performance?  It is most likely the outcome of the election and investor uncertainty for what could begin in 2013.  Although it should be of no surprise, once people are impacted by the imposed taxes, it could have an affect on expendable income and consumer confidence, which directly relates to corporate spending on capital improvements and profit sharing.  With many unknowns for what 2013 holds, the safest investment option is holding onto and preserving what you have until a better educated decision is available.  Since we can narrow all of the other reasons for the stocks falling in value, this would be the best explanation I can conclude for its cause, and hope that the future flourishes with economic growth.   

How Will ObamaCare Affect Economic Recovery?

While the end of 2012 is fast approaching, few people have a clue what 2013 has entail.  Since ObamaCare is to go active in January, we must be prepared for the fallout that this could cause.  Although some people believe ObamaCare is “FREE”, one must remember Nothing in Life is Free and actually with the imposed policy we will all have to reach deep in our pockets to pay for President Obama’s Health Care Policy.  Having heard some preliminary cost figures around $3500 a year per taxpayer no matter if you are an employee at McDonald's or an Orthopedic Surgeon, it will affect each and everyone.  In addition to the imposed cost involved, it is extremely likely with the imposed compliance regulations and employer mandate taxes that a reduction in jobs and less business expansion will occur.

ObamaCare will affect the economy, but not in a positive light.  Mandating additional taxes, when the economy is not fully recovered from the deep recession that has left many people’s pockets empty, is a disaster waiting to happen.  With many people still struggling to survive and then having their paycheck whacked to pay for this healthcare policy, it could cause a financial catastrophe similar to the Great Depression.  Other nations have tried centralized heath care using similar lingo to the way ObamaCare is written, but all of them have failed. 

Although each and everyone will be affected by ObamaCare, those in the lower class and lower middle class will be affected the most by the new policy.  With roughly $3500 a year coming off your paycheck, it will affect an employee at McDonald's more than an Orthopedic Surgeon.  Since inflation won’t rise high enough to help equalize the cost increase for health care, it is bound to adjust your spending budget.  Less cash to spend creates lower consumer confidence, therefore less spending of expendable income, and spending is what generates growth. 

By now, you can probably see that you are going to be affected by ObamaCare, but it’s too late to do anything other than endure the pain we all will be affected by starting in January.  Whether you are in manufacturing, retail, the automotive industry, or the hospitality industry, everyone will be affected.

Is this the jobs plan President Obama had in mind?  It is estimated that ObamaCare could result in 800,000 fewer U.S. jobs, and add trillion of dollars in debt for future generations to pay for.

Because ObamaCare imposes many regulations on physicians, many doctors are considering no longer accepting government health programs.  Since Medicaid only reimburses doctors 56 percent of the market rate for medical procedures, and with an increase of 18 million additional people to the program, it is super unfavorable for doctors to accept government health programs.  Not only is ObamaCare bad for doctors, it is also bad for seniors as well because doctors they previously visited may no longer accept the government programs.  Although many people believe doctors make too much money, many people forget the extreme costs involved to become a doctor, or the medical malpractice insurance that is very costly, or the frivolous law suits many doctors face.  Unfortunately, with all of those factors, many doctors don’t make that much money per year for the amount of stress and headache they endure to save lives.

So, how will ObamaCare affect our economy?  Not good.  I would suspect that we will see an increase in foreclosures again, debt will continue to rise astronomically, growth will cease, unemployment will increase, and our economy could fall beyond the impact of the recession, and that we will be left with a giant economic mess for future generations to clean up.

Increasing taxes does not generate economic growth, and distribution of wealth does not create incentive to overachieve.  Distribution of wealth rewards mediocrity and poor performance, and creates a nation of stagnant growth.  So as the end of 2012 comes near, be prepared to open your wallets, and wait for the fallout that will come from the Centralized Health Care policy known as ObamaCare.  It’s not if the affects of ObamaCare come, it’s when the affects of ObamaCare come, Be Prepared and Have a Plan.  Although I would like to think that ObamaCare is a positive thing, unfortunately when you dig into the facts of the policy, it has Failure written all over it.  To find out more about ObamaCare, here’s a resource I thought was interesting from The Heritage Foundation. 

What to Expect this Holiday Season

Now that the elections are passed us, many retailers are getting into full swing for the holiday season.  With many retailers who have released Black Friday ads already, consumers are getting energized with the holiday spirit.  While some have wondered what to expect this holiday season, many expectations are optimistic.  Having the 4^th quarter start off so strong, it is expected whether you are a manufacturer, retailer, or consumer, you can expect continued growth through the beginning of 2013.

 

As fuel prices have been falling, and consumer confidence continues to rise, positive growth prevails.  While we can hope that the trend continues, only time will tell.  Now that the elections are over, stock market volatility should be reduced and become more docile.  If we can keep the Dow Jones up, Economy Strong, and keep Consumer Spending up, we should be moving in the right direction for the beginning of 2013.

 

In addition, we also can expect to see lower unemployment numbers in the coming months as companies hire seasonal workers.  With more people working earning a wage, people have more excess capital to spend, which also will help the continued growth of this great nation that we all reside.

 

Whether you are a democrat or republican, there is now no time for bickering as we must move forward.  It is with God that we put our trust that the next 4 years will continue to improve and the economy will rejuvenate with sustainable growth.  It is only with growth that we can reduce poverty, build jobs, and generate products for the greater good. 

 

While the holiday season is a major part of people’s lives, it also is a major time for businesses to generate enough profit to help them wade through the slow times of the year.  In an effort to help this nation, I would urge everyone to look at the labels and support American Made Products whenever possible.  Although it seems all products are produced abroad, you may be surprised to find that products such as Carhartt Clothing, Kershaw Knives, Ocean Tamer - Marine Bean Bags, and many many more products are produced here in the United States.  To find additional resources for American Made Products this Holiday Season, I found a huge list at www.AmericansWorking.com.  No matter if you are an individual shopping this season for personal gifts or management personnel looking for retail displays, take a few extra minutes to research American Made Alternatives that may be comparable in price and keep jobs in America.

 

It is only with the help of everyone that we insure the Holiday Season is Successful and that we keep the positive economic growth in America.  As Americans we must be United as One or Divided We Will Fall. God Bless You All this Holiday Season and Let’s Finish the 4^th Quarter of 2012 Strong with a Successful Holiday Season.

Go Vote Today!

Today is the Day, for YOU to Make a Difference. November 6th, 2012 is HERE. Execute Your Right to Vote, and get to the polls.  Every Vote Counts!  He/ She who doesn't vote, can't complain about the outcome of the election or the changes from Amendments whether they be positive or negative.

Lessons Learned & The Positives Derived by Hurricane Sandy

While Hurricane Sandy has caused severe havoc on the Northeastern United States and resulted in the loss of lives, she also will produce many positives as well.  With every negative situation, I try to find the positives in order to move forward.  Even though some initial reports have estimated more than 50 billion dollars in damage, it will result in rebuilding and provide many types of jobs as well.

For the loss of lives, we send our deepest condolences and prayers to all of those families.  With God Speed we hope you find the peace needed in order to move forward.

While Caribbean Nations, Floridians, and the Southern United States are well accustomed to hurricanes and the potential hazards they inflict, many northern states appear ill prepared for such natural disaster.  Although there were many variables that caused this storm to be catastrophic, when provided with all of the materials from early detection technology, the loss of lives should be prevented.  Even though Hurricane Sandy was only a Category 1 storm, with all of the other known details provided by the National Weather Service, she was no beast to recon with.  Taken from this storm, can be the lessons learned by listening to the warnings.  I also would claim that an increase in building codes is likely needed in order to be able to sustain such storm.  Since it is known that the most damaging aspect of a storm is the storm surge, the structures along the coast should be elevated, and built to withstand the sustained winds.

Having been called the “Frankenstorm”, for its arrival so close to Halloween and extremely late in the hurricane season, it has caused a huge nightmare for millions of people near and afar, but will have positive outcomes.  In order to generate power a combination of negative and positives are needed.  Although it is not always easy to extract the positive in a negative situation, they do exist.  Having a positive outlook on the situation will lead to a generation of growth.  With the storm having caused such devastation, all industries will be affected by the storm and its aftermath.  Plumbers, electricians, home builders, truck drivers, furniture stores, department stores, etc, etc, etc all will see an increase in business and provide jobs that may have otherwise been not available.  As those areas affected by the storm are cleaned up and rebuilt, many jobs will be needed and will put people back to work.

As I have experienced the tragedies and worked with the victims caused by hurricanes and natural disasters numerous times, I know first hand what those affected are experiencing.  Often times after the storm people will realize the storm brought neighbors closer together, bridged the gap with seniors and youth, and opened the heart of those around them to lend a helping hand to each other.  With the inability to rely solely on government entities, FEMA, and assistance organizations, I have found that natural disaster like this do bring many positives along with the negatives, so I would urge those affected and nearby to lend a helping hand to each other, keep a positive outlook on the situation, and remain strong through this tough time.  Better things are yet to come, and many lessons will be taken from Hurricane Sandy.  God Bless.